Methods and concepts for Value Based Management (VBM)
Scenario planning is a model for learning about the future in which a corporate strategy is formed by drawing a small number of scenarios, stories how the future may unfold, and how this may affect an issue that confronts the corporation. Royal Dutch Shell, one of the first and leading adopters, defines scenarios as follows: Scenarios are carefully crafted stories about the future embodying a wide variety of ideas and integrating them in a way that is communicable and useful. Scenarios help us link the uncertainties we hold about the future to the decisions we must make today. The scenario planning method works by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the future. It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues important to the future of your business. The goal is to craft a number of diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces. The stories together with the work getting there has the dual purpose of increasing the knowledge of the business environment and widen both the receiver's and participant's perception of possible future events. The method is most widely used as a strategic management tool, but it is also used for enabling group discussion about a common future.
Typically, the scenario planning process is as follows:
Some traps to avoid in Scenario Planning: